The long-term demand of a new Pricing Theory:
In the late 1970's the U. S. government abandoned the "Bretton-Woods-System" which was mainly based on the classical gold standard. The resulting flexibility of currency exchange rates and popularity of currency market trading was the major step of creating a globalized economy and a worldwide financial arena. Globalization means free markets which are the battlefield of allocation for various kinds of resources. Consequently, economists and financiers worldwide began with the research of ultimate mechanisms of pricing models.The 1997 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Robert C. Merton and Myron S. Scholes for their Options Pricing Model, along with Fischer Black. This is a good example to reveal the general importance of pricing models, although this model was only designed to determine the time value of derivatives but not the value of the underlying contract itself. Furthermore, this mathematical model contains blind-spots due to the use of static parameters which fail to perform price forecasts under the rule of Random Walk. As a matter of fact, this model can only find the derivatives' fair value at a certain time-spot. The failure of L.T.C.M. proved that this model is not applicable in kinetic markets.
The application of Artificial Intelligence:
In the late 20th century, computer technology has gained its popularity; as a result, Wall Street financial communities have had biannual conventions on the application of Artificial Intelligence in financial trading since 1991. During those conferences there were lots of discussions about utilizing Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms, Fuzzy Logic or Chaos Theory with modern technique to find better solution but so far nothing significant has been achieved.
The weakness of Fundamental and Technical Analysis:
When economists try to use economic figures to analyze markets, they are facing various difficulties. Either the data available is insufficient or numbers are ambiguous and even worse, markets roll over consistently and money is changing hands rapidly. With such background, it may not be impossible but difficult to come up with a useful and reliable price forecasting.On the other hand, Technical Analysis nowadays is dominated by Candlestick-, Bar- or Continuous-Charts in combination with various indicators merely derived by statistical or mathematical calculation. Furthermore, the accuracy of Technical Analysis is blocked by the theory of Random Walk.In conclusion, there has not been any breakthrough-method (neither fundamental nor technical) of price forecast in the financial industry for several decades.
The philosophy of J-Chart:
One day when I was sitting at the beach of Hawaii looking at the sunset, I suddenly realized that the concept of using fixed time-sequence intervals was the major "fraud" of thinking while doing market analysis. Time is an irreversible vector which has no meaning without events. There is actually no image point or cycle if nothing significant happens. People use one hour, one day, one week or even one month to display and observe the market's movement which is a wrong idea. For example, we would not remember 911 if there had not been a terrorist attack. It would just be another day in the calendar. Against this background, here are the conclusions:
- Only the "event" has its image.
- The event happened for the purpose of obtaining equilibrium.
- The outcome of equilibrium is chaos and between them is the endless cycle.
- Price is the event.
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